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The corn market in 2019 consists of two waves: one wave rises in spring and one wave falls in autumn

来源: 互联网 2019-12-09 15: 41: 48Source: Internet

In general, the 2019 corn market consists of two waves; one wave rises in spring and one wave falls in autumn.

The first wave of increase began on February 25, and its low was 1792 yuan / ton. At this time, the source of grain was basically transferred from farmers to traders, and the auction of grain was postponed until May. Driven by the "green and yellow" and processing season, the government's purchase of the market directly ignited the market enthusiasm; the rising market continued until May 29 The highest point in Japan was 2035 yuan / ton, with an increase of 243 yuan / ton (+ 14%).

The second wave of market quotation is based on the downward trend, which has been reversed since the end of May and continues to this day. The turning factors are: high futures premiums, policy grain auctions, and seasonal pressure on wheat harvest. Entering August, the market is under pressure to harvest new corn, and feed consumption is in a doldrums due to swine fever; as a result, the market has experienced a rapid decline and hit a stage low on September 30 (1831 yuan Ton). Since then, Dalian corn has rebounded slightly for one month. The reason for this is that the delayed listing of new corn was delayed until late November.

Since November, the corn market has shown a downward trend. This is caused by the pressure to digest the concentrated market of new corn. It can be said that this is the last wave of declines to seek when and where it is the bottom; and to lay the foundation for the rise in 2020.

Analysis of important events and points in time

1. The impact of China-US trade negotiations on the market

After more than a year of repeated talks between China and the United States, there seems to be optimistic progress. It is said that it is possible for the two countries to reach a "first phase" agreement in December. According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the United States are engaged in in-depth discussions on the cancellation of tariff increases.

As far as the corn market is concerned, its main concerns are: whether China will increase imports of US corn and sorghum grains, and whether to eliminate mutual import tariffs. If so, it will not only psychologically, but also actually impact the corn market.

Currently, China's annual import quota for corn is 7.2 million tons. Therefore, compared to the huge domestic consumption of corn, the limited import shock is mostly psychological. In terms of price, if China abolishes the 25% tariff on US corn, the price advantage of US grains will still be quite prominent. Based on recent CBOT data, the tax-paid cost of corn imports in the United States is less than 1,800 yuan / ton; compared to Guangdong ’s Shekou Port, the average cabin price is 1960-1980 yuan / ton, and the import profit can reach 180 yuan / ton. In addition, the Ukrainian quotation for Ukrainian corn in February / March is as low as 1700 yuan / ton. It can be seen that the import shock is also real.

2. Centralized listing is the main contradiction of the moment

Supply and demand are always a contradiction, and who dominates will determine the current state of mind and trend. According to data from the National Grain and Oil Center, as of November 10, the progress of grain sales in Northeast China was 10%, and the progress of grain sales in North China was 18%. It can be seen that the time for new corn to be marketed this year is 10-15 days later than in previous years. That is: from the end of this month, Northeast corn will gradually increase its volume. Therefore, the pressure of centralized listing needs to be digested.

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