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A new wave of refining capacity expansion hits energy transformation and shifts into gear shifting

来源: 证券日报网 2019-12-20 09: 51: 16Source: Securities Daily

On December 19, the "2020 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report" (hereinafter referred to as the report), which was sponsored by Sinopec Institute of Economics and Technology and co-organized by Wood McKenzie, was released and the seminar was held in Beijing.

"Securities Daily" reporter was informed from the meeting that the main goals of China's energy planning during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period are expected to be achieved, and a new chapter in the energy transition will be launched, with more stable development. In the year of fierce competition, it will also face the elimination and consolidation of the industry.

Energy transition towards gear shifting

The report said that in 2019, China's primary energy consumption was about 4.79 billion tons of standard coal, a growth rate of 3.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. The production effect is remarkable, the task of reducing coal production capacity is completed ahead of time, and the proportion of wind power photovoltaic installations continues to rise. In 2020, it is expected that the targets of total volume, structure and consumption intensity in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" of China's energy development will be basically achieved, and the total primary energy demand is expected to be 4.93 billion tons of standard coal.

Among them, coal demand is about 3.92 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for about 56.7%; non-fossil energy demand is about 740 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 15.1%; energy consumption intensity is about 0.52 tons of standard coal / 10,000 yuan (GDP is based on 2015 (Variable price), which will be 16% lower than in 2015. China will continue to promote the energy transformation and optimize the energy structure with a more pragmatic attitude. The new energy industry will shift from policy-driven to market-driven, and the energy industry will enter a stage of high-quality development.

Under the potential oversupply cycle, there is downward pressure on international oil prices.

The report also shows that the growth rate of the global economy and trade in 2019 has dropped significantly, and oil demand has increased by only 900,000 barrels per day, the lowest since 2011; while oil supply is abundant, the average price of Brent crude oil is $ 64 per barrel. In 2020, the commissioning of a large number of new refineries and low-sulfurization of marine fuels will increase world oil demand by 1.1-1.2 million barrels per day, slightly better than 2019. However, the international oil market as a whole is still in an excess cycle. The relatively low oil price has suppressed the growth rate of US shale oil production, but US crude oil production will still increase by about 900,000 barrels per day in 2020 (1.25 million barrels per day in 2019), and new projects such as Brazil, Norway, Guyana will be put into production The pressure of global oversupply is greater; in this case, OPEC + has to continue and increase production reductions to balance the market. At the same time, the connotation of geopolitics in 2020 will be extended to the Middle East supply risks, trade frictions, Brexit and other fields. The risk of unexpected fluctuations in oil prices is particularly high.

Therefore, the report predicts that the international oil price operation center in 2020 will move down slightly from 2019, and the average annual Brent oil price will be between 58-68 US dollars / barrel.

New round of refining capacity expansion hits

In 2019, Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical went into operation, and the domestic refining pattern and resource flow restructured; the growth rate of refined oil terminal consumption slowed to 2.8%, and the consumption of chemical light oil increased sharply by 10.5%.

The report shows that in 2020, the wholesale and retail of refined oil products in China have been gradually opened up, and the market-oriented reform of refined oil products has entered a tough period. In the past 2-5 years, the automobile industry is in an adjustment period, and coupled with the development of alternative fuels such as ethanol and electric vehicles, the growth rate of demand for refined oil products has been in a slight downward channel for a long time. It is estimated that the terminal consumption in 2020 will be 403 million tons, a growth rate of 2.2%; and The commissioning of multiple refining projects will enable China's primary refining capacity to reach 900 million tons in 2020, and the release of new production capacity will make domestic competition intensify. The refining industry must focus on improving competitiveness, achieving transformation and high-quality development. It is estimated that China's refined oil export volume will reach 59 million tons in 2020, or it will become the largest exporter in Asia-Pacific.

At the same time, the global petrochemical industry has ushered in a major cycle transition and the industry has begun to enter a period of great integration.

The report also said that in 2019, the world's petrochemical capacity expansion will further accelerate, and the excess risk in the petrochemical market will increase; domestic ethylene equivalent consumption growth will reach about 9%, and new-type consumption and alternative consumption growth will be outstanding, but PX, ethylene glycol and other bulk products were once A break below the breakeven line also signals a market turning signal. Major breakthroughs or progress have been made in key technologies such as the production of olefins and OCM. A series of card neck products such as adiponitrile have been produced using independent technology.

It is worth mentioning that China's hydrogen energy industry has entered a period of rapid development opportunities, and petrochemical enterprises will have a lot to do. The development of hydrogen energy will help China to optimize its energy structure, cope with climate change, and maintain energy security. The industry has a promising future, but the development of the hydrogen energy industry still faces huge challenges in terms of policy planning, technological breakthroughs, and economic needs to be improved.

According to the report, after 2035, the pressure on carbon emission reduction will increase, the cost of hydrogen from renewable energy sources and hydrogen fuel cell systems will drop sharply, and hydrogen fuel vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations will have a large increase in some areas. Petrochemical companies have significant advantages in hydrogen production, use of hydrogen, construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and research and development, and will greatly contribute to the development of the hydrogen energy industry. (Reporter Li Chunlian)

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