It has been 20 years since our country entered aging in 1999. With the successive introduction of pension-related policies, keen capital has been testing the pension industry.
The data from the sky eye survey shows that in recent years, the number of pension companies in China has shown a blowout growth. As of December 19, 2019, there were close to 110,000 companies nationwide covering "age care". Since 2019, the number of newly added companies is close to 30,000, which is 5.8 times five years ago and 32 times ten years ago.
100 trillion yuan pension market waiting for "nuggets"
Data show that in 2018, the proportion of China's population over 60 years of age has reached 17.88%, and the proportion of population over 65 years of age has reached 11.94%, which has entered a more serious ageing society.
Northeast Securities macro analyst You Chunye said in an interview with "Securities Daily": "Our calculations show that the proportion of China ’s population aged 60 and 65 will continue to rise. By 2030, the population above 65 will reach 265 million The proportion of people will reach 18.51%; the population over 65 years of age will reach 348 million in 2050, accounting for 26.49%. This shows that the pension industry has a bright future. "
You Chunye believes: "In the future, the elderly population in China will skyrocket, and it is difficult for the only children in the general population to have the energy to take care of the elderly themselves. Therefore, the demand for domestic help services and elderly care will increase significantly in the future."
According to the data of Tianyan Inspection, there are nearly 110,000 enterprises covering "old-age" in the country, and the annual compound growth rate of old-age enterprises from 2014 to 2018 is as high as 46.6%. In 2019, there were 26,778 new elderly enterprises, and the number of new enterprises and the total number of elderly enterprises reached a new high.
According to You Chunye, there are currently three main types of elderly care in the world, namely home care, community care and institutional care. In China, the distribution of these three pension models accounts for approximately 96%, 1%, and 3%. "The proportion of home-based pension models in China is too high, and the three types of pension models have shown a clear development imbalance."
In addition, according to estimates from the China Aging Research Center, the output value of China's aging industry will exceed 100 trillion yuan in 2050, accounting for more than one-third of GDP at that time.
You Chunye pointed out: "The serious shortage of professionals is currently the biggest problem in China's pension industry. With the gradual improvement of institutional and community pensions and the improvement of pension standards, the demand for pension professionals in the future will be huge. There will also be a broad market for professional training institutions. "
There are also traps in the pie
However, with the rapid development of old-age care enterprises, some investment traps in the name of “old-age care” have followed. Illegal fundraising, online pyramid schemes, and other public-related crimes are happening frequently. Some scams advertised as investment projects in the retirement field such as "high returns and getting rich quickly" have left many elderly people with hard-earned pension funds. In response, the Hunan Provincial Finance Office recently specifically raised the risk of illegal fund-raising in the name of old-age care services to prevent "old-age" from becoming "old-fashioned."
On November 22, the Hunan Provincial Thematic Activities on Preventing and Combating Illegal Fundraising in the Elderly Career Area, jointly organized by Hunan Provincial Financial Supervision Administration and Hunan Provincial Public Security Department, held a press conference in Changsha. Zhao Jiangwen, political commissar of the Economic Investigation Investigation Corps of the Hunan Provincial Public Security Department, said that since 2018, the province's public security organs have detected 45 such cases in accordance with the law, involving a total value of more than 3.5 billion yuan, and cracking down on 66 criminal suspects.
Zhao Jiangwen pointed out that at present the potential risks in the province's elderly care sector are still very large. According to incomplete statistics, there are 327 non-public enterprises involved in the elderly care sector in the province. According to the big data research of the public security organs, 37 of them are suspected of raising funds illegally and have high levels of crime risk.
In response, the Hunan Provincial Finance Office also recently issued a “Risk Tips on Illegal Fundraising and Fraud Sales of“ Health Care Products ”in the Name of Elderly Care Services”, suggesting that the following types of behaviors are different from normal old age care services, and have greater hidden risks.
First, high rebates cannot be realized. The rebate fund mainly comes from the fees paid by the elderly, which belongs to the demolition of the eastern wall and the western wall.
Second, the security of funds cannot be guaranteed. Some old-age service agencies obviously exceed the commitment capacity of the bed supply capacity, or exceed the sustainable profit level, promise to repay the principal and interest, and collect high-value members from members in the name of "VIP card", "member card", "prepaid card", etc. Fees, deposits or recharge of membership cards to absorb public funds.
Third, health needs cannot be met. Some companies conduct false or misleading business to the elderly through conference marketing, health lectures, expert free consultations, free inspections, free experiences, gift giving or unreasonably low-cost travel, and telemarketing, door-to-door sales, and online sales. Publicize and promote the so-called "health products".
Fourth, there are illegal risks in the operating model. Some old-age service agencies sell fictitious old-age apartments, old-age villas, or in the name of investment, franchise, equity health-care old-age pension bases, old-age apartments, and other projects, they promise to absorb the funds by means of return sales, after-sale charter, agreed repurchase, and sale of real estate shares.
Chen Duan, an associate professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics and executive director of the China Economic Research Center for Digital Economy, said in an interview with the Securities Daily: "In recent years, the pension industry has continued to explore cooperation models with social capital, and introduced non-governmental organizations through institutional reform and innovation. The company manages and operates. "
Chen Duan believes: "In this process, how to ensure profitable social capital to provide quasi-public goods such as pension products requires a systematic incentive system and regulatory mechanism design to avoid moral hazard in the operation after government endorsement and harm the original The feelings and social trust of the elderly who belong to vulnerable groups. "(Reporter He Wenying)
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