For modern society, the demand for mobile communications covers almost every aspect of human life. With the rapid increase in the penetration rate of various intelligent terminal equipment, people's quality and speed requirements for mobile signals in production and life are also changing qualitatively.
Throughout the history of mobile network technology development, from 1G to 5G, functional requirements have jumped. First, audio and information communication requirements from 1G and 2G, video from 3G, and 4G. Scenes such as constant interaction, VR, etc. Until the current 5G smart home, driverless and other needs, it can be said that each "revolution" of mobile network technology has brought great changes to people's production and life. At the same time, with higher transmission speeds, more stable signal interactions, and lower time delays, applications such as autonomous driving, tactile Internet, and telemedicine have greatly increased the demand for more and more high-tech development. Satisfaction.
It is understood that 5G will fully surpass 4G on 8 major KPI indicators. Among them, the peak data transmission rate will reach 20Gbit / s, the user experience rate will reach 100Mbit / s, and the time delay will be less than 1ms. This is not possible with 4G technology. of. In the future, the deep integration of 5G with cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies will also become the key infrastructure for digital transformation in various industries.
2019 can be described as the "first commercial year" of 5G technology. On June 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued 5G commercial licenses to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Broadcasting and Television. Operators have since accelerated 5G construction, promoted the digital transformation of various industries, and got rid of the current bottleneck in the development of traffic operations. China officially entered 5G era.
With the continuous breakthrough of 5G technology, the application results of upstream and downstream manufacturers in the industry chain are also continuously updated and launched. In November 2019, the first World 5G Conference was successfully held in Daxing District, Beijing. A number of domestic 5G industry chain manufacturers participated in it. In addition to 5G mobile phones, the innovation achievements of multiple 5G application scenarios were also displayed, up to Automated driving, down to safety monitoring, as large as intelligent logistics, and as small as telemedicine, fully reflect the convergence and wide application of 5G technology.
As the first year of 5G commercialization in 2019, looking back on the development of the past year, the numerous development achievements of China's 5G industry will surely be recorded in history; looking forward to the future, 5G will make mobile connectivity a universal technology, allowing everything to be connected to each other. The large-scale eruption of the scene will certainly open a new era of breaking through the limits and accelerating progress.
The average annual compound growth rate of 5G commercial direct output may reach 29%
Since 2019, China's 5G industry has shown a blowout development trend under the continuous promotion of policies.
On January 13, CCTV, China Mobile, and Huawei successfully launched a 5G network 4K TV transmission test in Shenzhen, Guangdong. The CCTV Spring Festival Evening Shenzhen branch historically achieved 5G network transmission of 4K UHD content, marking the central government. The Central Radio and TV Station has taken a solid step in accelerating the scale of 5G trials and application demonstrations.
On June 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a 5G commercial license. Operators accelerated 5G construction, promoted the digital transformation of various industries, and got rid of the current bottleneck in the development of traffic operations. At the same time, the technological achievements achieved by China's 5G industry in recent years will not only lay a solid foundation for the leap-forward development of 5G technology in the future, but also play a significant role in promoting economic growth and optimizing the manufacturing structure of the manufacturing industry.
Regarding the volume of economic growth brought about by the development of 5G technology, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Director of Future Mobile Communications Forum, Mr. He Heji, said that as of June 2019, China ’s monthly average monthly user traffic is 7.2GB, which is 1.2 times the global average; Mobile Internet access traffic increased by 107.3% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 19GB by 2024.
"It is expected that by 2025, China will have 430 million 5G connections, and 5G users will account for 28% of China's total mobile users, accounting for 1/3 of the world's total, becoming the world's largest 5G market." Xu Hezhen further stated that from the domestic In terms of scope, as mentioned in the "China Digital Economy Development and Employment White Paper 2018" issued by the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, as of the end of 2018, China's digital economy accounted for 41.9% of GDP, of which 7.1% directly and 34.8% indirectly. , Industrial Internet, 5G and AI technologies will become the most important components supporting the digital economy.
In addition, according to the research data of the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, according to China's official 5G commercial estimates in 2020, it is expected to drive about 484 billion yuan of direct output that year, and the direct output value will increase to 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan in 2025 and 2030, respectively. Trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 29% over a decade.
In terms of indirect output, in 2020, 2025 and 2030, 5G will drive indirect economic output of 1.2 trillion yuan, 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 24%. In addition, 5G is expected to drive more than 8 million jobs in 2030, mainly from employment opportunities created by telecommunications operations and Internet service companies.
Xia Fengguang, a private equity bank fund manager, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that China has sufficient technology reserves in 5G and has started commercial work earlier. It has advantages in infrastructure and will vigorously promote 5G. Commercials continue to mature. Not only next year, but throughout the next 5G cycle, China's 5G technology will maintain the leading edge of the first echelon internationally.
According to Xia Fengguang, throughout the country, for many years, the Pearl River Delta region has been a dense communication industry area. Among them, 5G communication technology-related companies accounted for more than 50%. Leading companies in 5G technology, Huawei and ZTE, are located in the Pearl River Delta region. Beijing is an area where research institutes are concentrated, with strong scientific research strength, and also the headquarters of three major operators, including China Mobile. In the central Wuhan area, the 5G industry also has a certain strength. Fiberhome Communications and Wuhan Fangu are some of the most representative enterprises.
5G patents highlight Huawei's first-mover advantage
Looking around the world, many countries seem to be caught off guard by the arrival of the 5G era, but China is an exception. In recent years, the achievements of Chinese companies in the field of 5G are obvious to all. Huawei and ZTE are typical representatives.
China's 5G technology research and development level is currently in the global leading echelon. According to the latest statistics from German patent database company IPlytics, as of September 2019, Huawei currently holds the absolute commanding heights with 3325 applications in the global 5G standard essential patents (SEPs). Samsung ranks second with 2,846, and LG ranks 2463. The third and fourth to eighth are Nokia Alcatel-Lucent, ZTE, Ericsson, Qualcomm and Intel.
"Securities Daily" reporter was informed that there are many patents related to 5G. The SEP mentioned here refers to indispensable and inevitable patents. Such high-value 5G patents are the key to measuring the strength of a country and enterprises in 5G patents.
In the high-end dialogue of "5G Smart Connected Everything Digital Future" at the 2019 China Digital Expo on May 26, Lu Yong, Vice President of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. stated that Huawei's R & D investment in 2018 exceeded 100 billion yuan. Therefore, Huawei It is inevitable that the number of 5G patents owned by the company is ahead of those of other countries. Yang Chaobin, president of Huawei's 5G product line, also said that Huawei has invested in 5G technology research for more than 10 years and is at least 12 to 18 months ahead of its peers in 5G. It is currently the world's largest 5G manufacturer.
Huawei's 5G technology advantages are relatively obvious. On the one hand, it benefits from the earlier launch of 5G technology research and development, and on the other hand, due to the advantages of patents, it has helped Chinese companies to win the right to speak internationally and participated in the formulation of multiple 5G related standards.
Up to now, although the number of global 5G standard patents and key technology patents already owned by Chinese companies ranks first in the world, there are still some shortcomings in China's 5G technology. Xia Fengguang, a private equity bank fund manager, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that "the core shortcoming lies in 5G chips, which are mainly caused by technical barriers, overseas blockades, and insufficient domestic talent reserves in related areas. For these problems, In the future, we need to increase our efforts to catch up. "
Regarding the talent reserve of the 5G industry, Li Yinghong, the former chairman of Longmen Asset Management, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that as a high-tech enterprise, the proportion of R & D personnel must be guaranteed, otherwise it will be in the future. Losing core advantages in competition can not keep up with the pace of industry advancement.
Li Yinghong further analyzed that for the upstream and downstream companies in the 5G industry chain, in terms of the number of R & D personnel, Huawei is a good benchmark. Its R & D personnel account for about 70% -80% of its total staff. , But not every company needs to reach such a high proportion, and should be arranged according to their actual situation.
"Talent is the fundamental foundation for the development of any company, especially for high-tech companies. In terms of talent management, 5G industry chain companies should learn more from Huawei and establish effective and feasible systems and mechanisms in terms of compensation and equity incentives. In order to achieve the effect that people do their best and talents are willing to pay sincerely, to achieve a good atmosphere that talents are willing to 'grow with the company', and 'contribute more to the company'. "Li Yinghong said.
Three major application scenarios of 5G and industry are deeply integrated into reality
With the rapid development of China's 5G technology, integration with other industries has also begun.
According to a reporter from Securities Daily, 5G technology has three major characteristics: high speed, low latency, and wide coverage. The core application scenarios of 5G technology, in addition to satisfying the demands of connected entertainment with high-definition video and cloud games, also include new application scenarios such as industrial interconnection, telemedicine, and intelligent driving. Therefore, the demand for 5G applications will be more concentrated in densely populated, traffic-intensive, and industrially-developed areas. North, Shanghai, and Guangdong will be the core areas, and core urban agglomerations in the central and southwestern regions will also have a lot of application space.
The "World 5G Conference" (hereinafter referred to as the "Conference") recently held in Yizhuang Development Zone, Daxing District, Beijing, has fully demonstrated the application of 5G technology by Chinese enterprises.
It can be seen from the display content that the three major application scenarios of 5G (enhanced mobile broadband, intelligent life, high reliability and ultra-low latency communication) are achieving deep integration with many industries.
The most intuitive manifestation of the enhanced mobile broadband scenario is that the network speed is doubled and the transmission data rate is extremely high. Under 5G signals, 5G mobile phones can easily watch 2K / 4K video and AR / VR online, and the peak speed can reach 10Gbps, which represents the result of 5G smartphones.
Smart life scenarios rely on the strong connectivity of 5G to promote the integration of vertical industries. In the context of the interconnection of all things, relying on various sensors and terminals around them to build an intelligent life scenario, the representative results are home security remote monitoring equipment, Smart appliances.
High-reliability, ultra-low-latency communication scenarios, as the latest application scenarios, have led to the integration of high and new technology and made people look refreshing. In the field of connected cars, remote driving can be realized; in the medical field, remote surgery can be realized; in the field of industrial control, intelligent logistics can be realized, such as autonomous security identification, intelligent guidance, production-aware scheduling, video traceability, safety identification, human Many work needs such as non-sense car entry and digital platform can be met.
In addition, the development potential of "5G + Industrial Internet" is also generally optimistic. On November 19, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "5G + Industrial Internet" 512 Project Promotion Plan (referred to as the "Plan"), which provided a wider space for the integration and application of 5G and manufacturing.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that low latency, high reliability and broadband characteristics determine that 5G networks can provide the basic support for the communication network for the Industrial Internet. Therefore, the Industrial Internet is 5G One of the key application scenarios of technology.
At present, China's Industrial Internet is in a period of rapid development, and there is a lot of room for improvement. The release of the "Proposal" will promote the faster penetration of 5G technology into the industrial Internet field, help the domestic industrial Internet to achieve leapfrog development, and then promote the efficiency upgrade of China's manufacturing industry.
"From the perspective of 4G experience, the release of the" Proposal "is expected to accelerate the birth of a number of new technologies, new applications and new models in the industrial Internet field, and form a feedback on the development of 5G technology and form a demonstration effect on the integration of 5G technology and other industries. Yuan Huaming analyzed.
In addition, the application requirements of 5G technology in economic and social scenarios are also increasingly prominent. The complexity of economic and social scenarios often requires the coordination of multiple technologies, which determines that it is not realistic to rely on a single 5G technology to meet the needs of application scenarios. Take the fusion of 5G technology and the more popular blockchain technology in recent years as an example. On the one hand, the integrated development of 5G technology and other industries can provide the necessary data communication foundation for the application of blockchain technology; on the other hand, the 5G application integration area Blockchain technology, blockchain application combined with 5G technology, are likely to generate new application scenario requirements. At the same time, the decentralized and distributed data storage characteristics of the blockchain determine that the blockchain technology depends on the stability, efficiency, and flexibility of communication. 5G technology provides a certain amount of value for blockchain technology and industrial development. Communication infrastructure guarantee.
Yuan Huaming said that the current blockchain technology has been applied to a certain degree in the fields of digital finance, the Internet of Things, intelligent manufacturing, supply chain management, and digital asset trading. On the one hand, the development of 5G technology can help improve the existing application experience; on the other hand, the combination of 5G technology with blockchain technology or other technologies may give birth to application scenarios beyond the current imagination.
The coming 2019 is the first year of 5G commercial use and the first year of 5G network construction. The coming 2020 will usher in a larger scale of 5G network construction and the development and popularization of 5G mobile phone terminals. In this process, 5G network equipment providers, terminal manufacturers and related upstream and downstream industries will be the beneficiaries. Among them, similar to VR / AR, a personal consumer application industry that requires low latency and high speed, with the continuous increase of 5G penetration, there may be a sudden outbreak at any time. In the fields of Industrial Internet, Industrial Internet, and Autonomous Driving, technologies are yet to mature, or convergence takes time, and the warm-up time may be longer.
Judging from the experience of 4G development, the development of 5G will also spawn a number of new technologies, applications, and models that are beyond expectations. Some new industries that have not yet received attention may suddenly emerge, and suddenly develop with the potential of sparks. .
Policies and capital boost salaries to ensure 5G leadership
The healthy and stable development of 5G technology requires not only the promotion of various user needs, but also the strong support of macro policies and the capital market.
According to the reporter of Securities Daily, the state not only clarified the goals and directions of future development at a macro level, but also determined that it would actively promote breakthroughs in 5G core technology by relying on major national plans. In the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" National Informatization Plan released by the State Council in December 2016, 16 times mentioned "5G", highlighting the degree of emphasis the decision-makers attach to 5G network technology.
Since the beginning of this year, including the "5G + Industrial Internet" 512 Project Promotion Plan released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on November 22, and the "Beijing 5G Industry Development White Paper (2019)" issued by Beijing, etc., there have been multiple promotion of 5G development and applications. Policies have been released one after another.
Yuan Huaming, the general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, believes that under the regulation and guidance of relevant policies, the 5G industry will not only make rapid progress, but also affect the relatively weak upstream and downstream industries, such as chips, optical communications, and RF devices. Development plays a strong pulling role, and promotes the formation of a number of 5G-related technology companies with international competitiveness and influence.
At the same time, the penetration of 5G technology into the Industrial Internet and the Industrial Internet can help China's manufacturing industry to improve quality and efficiency, and help economic transformation and upgrading. The widespread use of 5G technology and the continuous integration with manufacturing will enable each other to be greatly improved and develop with high quality.
From the perspective of the impact of industrial policies on 5G technology, first of all, the policy will continue to promote and support the development of 5G core technologies and the growth and growth of key enterprises. Secondly, it will accelerate the construction of 5G network infrastructure, promote operators to speed up and reduce fees, and lower the 5G access threshold. Third, the increase in 5G technology penetration will help to bring into play the scale advantage of domestic network infrastructure in the long run, and promote the integrated development of 5G and other industries. In addition, according to their own economic development conditions and industrial characteristics, local governments can give certain tilts in policies such as capital and talents to 5G industries or upstream and downstream industries that are suitable for local characteristics, and promote the accelerated implementation of 5G infrastructure construction and application penetration.
At the capital market level, 2019 is not only the first year of 5G commercial use, but also the first year of the official operation of the science and technology board.The launch of the science and technology board can make the rapid development of the 5G industry even more powerful. As of now, 5G concept stocks in the A-share market New faces of the two companies listed on the science and technology board of Lianrui New Materials and Fangbang have already appeared.
Li Xiang, a fund manager of Beijing Yunfeng Asset Management Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the Securities Daily that 5G is a high-tech industry with long technology development cycles and difficulties. At the same time, related companies do not take the market as their first priority. Instead, it is more focused on achieving technological breakthroughs and improvements. Therefore, for these companies, whether they can obtain long-term and stable investment is very important. The positioning of the science and technology board is exactly to provide these companies with a solution to the problem of large long-term capital needs. It's convenient.
"Not only is the initial stage of the establishment of science and technology board, I think that these 5G industry chain upstream and downstream companies, the future listing and financing channels will be more inclined to science and technology board rather than the main board, because science and technology board can better provide these companies A development environment, when the enterprise matures or reaches a certain market competitiveness, to provide generous returns to investors in science and technology board, the two sides can form a virtuous circle, at the same time, can also help China to implement the innovation-driven development macro strategy. Li wants to further analyze that with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend that supports China's economic development, the advantages of labor costs are also gradually decreasing, so the model of economic growth driven by technological innovation will become the mainstream. The development of the 5G industry chain itself and the The penetration of other industries will greatly promote China's economic development from many aspects, such as promoting changes in production methods, promoting the improvement of social production efficiency, and reducing labor costs.
The starting gun for "5G commercial" has already been fired in 2019, and the global market is bound to stage a battle of contenders. The global leadership in patents indicates that domestic companies have occupied a good starting position in 5G technology, and this is not the end and it does not represent the ultimate victory. In this race for high-tech competition, only by persevering and making progress, making full use of industrial advantages, policy advantages and economic advantages, and continuously increasing research and development and application innovation, can we ensure that China is in the long-term leading position in the mobile communications field. (Apprentice reporter Li Zheng)
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