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National Bureau of Statistics: In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises rose from negative to positive and grew 5.4% year-on-year.

来源: 证券日报 2019-12-30 09: 34: 54Source: Securities Daily

On December 27, the financial data of industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November 2019, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive (down 9.9% in October). The cumulative profit from January to November fell by 2.1% year-on-year, which was 0.8 percentage points narrower than that from January to October.

Regarding the main reasons for the profit growth of industrial enterprises from negative to positive in November, Zhu Hong, a senior statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that first, the growth of industrial production and sales has accelerated significantly. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from October; the operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.8 percentage points from October. The expansion of the production scale of enterprises has brought about an increase in profits. Second, the decline in the ex-factory price of industrial products narrowed. In November, the ex-factory price of industrial producers fell by 1.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October; the purchase price of industrial producers fell by 2.2%, which was an increase of 0.1 percentage point from October. According to preliminary estimates, the changes in industrial product prices in November affected the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 4.0 percentage points from October.

Specific data shows that in November, the profits of private enterprises and small enterprises increased by 14.7% and 8.6% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rates were 9.9% and 5.6% faster than in October. The profits of state-owned holding companies increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reversing the trend of continuous decline since the second half of this year; the profits of foreign-invested and Chinese Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and fell by 2.0% in October.

Huatai Securities Macro Chief Analyst Li Chao told the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that in November, PMI returned to the line of prosperity and dryness, industrial production data rebounded, consumption rebounded, signals of economic stabilization appeared, investment performance still needs to pay attention to policy The effect of the signal. The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized that next year will be the year when a well-off society will be fully established and the 13th Five-Year Plan ends. Steady growth is still the top priority. It is expected that policy stimulus will be more positive in the first quarter of next year, policy tools may be ahead, and monetary policy Focusing on credit expansion, it is possible to reduce the target + PSL to invest more than 100 billion yuan a month to ensure the release of credit. Considering policy resonance to help the economy stabilize or accelerate the switching of inventory cycles will have an important impact on variables such as industrial product prices, corporate profits, cyclical stocks, and interest rates.

The chief analyst of CITIC Securities fixed income told the Securities Daily reporter that the monetary policy needs to be matched with local bond issuance, holiday demand and the maturity of the banking system at the beginning of next year. It is expected that the central bank will further conduct open market operations and MLF in January next year. As well as lowering the standards, maintaining smooth liquidity across sections. (Reporter Su Shiyu)

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