In 2019, China will continue to become the world's largest auto market for 11 consecutive years without any doubt. The year-end is approaching. The latest data released by the China Automobile Industry Association shows that in the first 11 months of this year, China's auto sales were 23.11 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Although the auto market sales have been on a downward trajectory for 17 consecutive months, the decline has narrowed.
Regarding the closing of the auto market this year, Xu Haidong, assistant secretary general of the China Automobile Association, told the Securities Daily reporter that the production and sales volume of the Chinese auto market fell by 8% in 2018, and this data is expected to be controlled within 9% in 2019. According to the prediction of the China Automobile Association, car sales in 2019 will be about 25.83 million. For the 2020 auto market, the decline may be narrower than this year. It is expected that sales will be 25.31 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 2%. The turning point of positive growth may occur in 2023.
"From the perspective of short-, medium-, and long-term influence factors, China's auto market has entered a stage of in-depth adjustment due to factors such as the rapid transition of emission standards, the overwhelming purchasing power of residents with high house prices, and the phased saturation of domestic car market demand. Deputy Secretary Changjiang Yuan said that the decline in the automotive market was both expected and unexpected. Among the expectations is that the automotive market has shown a significant decline since the second half of 2017, except that the decline is large and the decline is long.
However, even in the context of the overall decline of the automotive market, sales of some auto companies are still growing against the trend. According to "Securities Daily" reporter statistics, in the past November, FAW-Volkswagen led the year-on-year increase in sales among the top 10 passenger car companies. At the same time, the trend of "the strong and the weak and the weak and the weak" in the auto industry is more obvious. In Jiangyuan's view, China's market space is still large, consumption upgrade is still a major trend, and the differentiation of enterprises will also increase.
In 2019, the chill is not just the traditional fuel car market. The once-hot new energy vehicles also fell into the dilemma of “five consecutive declines” in production and sales in the second half of the year. Data show that in November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 110,000 and 95,000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% and 43.7%.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, believes that the fundamentals of China's auto market development are good, with great potential, strong resilience, and large room for manoeuvre; on the other hand, the industry and society need to work together to accelerate the reversal of negative growth . "I believe that after two years of negative growth in the Chinese automobile market, through the joint efforts of the industry and society, to accelerate the reform of the consumption system and mechanism, and to strengthen the confidence to promote automobile consumption, the Chinese passenger car market is expected to bottom out in 2020 and achieve positive growth."
Subsidence subsidy triggers industry inflection point
New energy automobile industry is suffering
Beginning with the "Ten-City Thousand Vehicles Project" in 2009, over the past 10 years after the implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy, over 100 billion yuan of subsidy funds have been issued. The huge investment in exchange for China's new energy vehicle market, "retained from 0 to 3 million +", "the world's first production and sales" and other outstanding results.
Faced with the rapid development and amazing achievements of the domestic new energy vehicle industry, we certainly have reasons to be happy. But behind this gratifying achievement, it is more important to remain rational. In fact, since the transition period of the new energy subsidy and new policy officially ended in July this year, the sales volume of the domestic new energy vehicle market has encountered a “five consecutive declines”, among which the year-on-year sales decline in November reached 43.7%.
At the time when the new energy vehicle market seemed to bottom out, joint venture brand car companies collectively blew their horns to enter the domestic new energy vehicle market. After the mainstream joint venture car companies Volkswagen, Honda, and Toyota successively launched pure electric models, the luxury car brand Mercedes-Benz ’s pure electric SUV model EQC was officially announced on November 8; 10 days later, on November 18, Audi's first electric car e-tron also rushed, and announced the sale price and announced that it would be put into production in China in 2020. At the same time, BMW is unwilling to stay behind, and its iX3 electric SUV is scheduled to officially start production in China in 2020.
The cruel reality of China's new energy vehicle market, as Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Hundred People Association, previously predicted: when the government subsidies for car purchases faded out, the day when foreign and joint venture brands entered the Chinese market.
In this regard, Lin Shi, a senior automotive analyst, frankly said that most of the patented technologies and intellectual property rights of joint venture car companies are concentrated in the field of engine and gearboxes of fuel engines. Until they are realized, they will not do their utmost like autonomous car companies. However, with the approach of fuel limit and the clear path of the new energy vehicle market, joint venture car companies are bound to attack the new energy vehicle sector.
A number of joint venture brands and luxury brand car companies have launched an electric offensive intensively, and the tough battle of disparity in body weight is imminent. The outlook is naturally not optimistic. But it is gratifying that after many years of technology accumulation and healthy competition, domestic new energy vehicle companies have gradually grown their wings. "Weilai has transitioned from team training to the qualifying stage. The next three years is a critical period to decide whether to win the qualification." In this regard, Weilai CEO Li Bin seems to have a clear sense of confrontation.
"Securities Daily" reporter noted that, on the one hand, the threshold for subsidies for new energy vehicles continues to rise; on the other hand, the subsidy intensity continues to decline, and the industry is generally worried that the number and proportion of subsidized vehicles will shrink. However, the actual situation is that the domestic new energy vehicle market has shown a good trend of “subsidy subsidies and product imports”. According to the latest information disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, compared with 2017, the number of models that passed the preliminary review of subsidies in 2018 accounted for an increase in the total sales of new energy vehicles, and the subsidies for new energy vehicles increased by 61.5% in one year.
In this regard, industry analysis believes that domestic new energy vehicle companies have embarked on a healthy development path, responded quickly after fully interpreting the policy, and timely updated and upgraded key performance indicators such as driving mileage and battery energy density. Therefore, under the strict requirements of high standards, the proportion of models that meet the new subsidy technology standards can continue to increase.
When talking about the recent downturn in the new energy vehicle industry, Yang Dayong, general manager of Changan New Energy, told the Securities Daily reporter: "The continuous decline in sales has not formed a trend. From the perspective of the automotive industry cycle, trend judgment requires continuous observation Around the year. The main reason for the decline in sales since the second half of this year is the temporary impact of subsidy declines. "
In this regard, Cheng Zhenbiao, former deputy chief engineer of Dongfeng Co., also believes that one cannot be pessimistic about China's distinctive new energy vehicle business because of slower or slower growth. "The development of new energy vehicles is a major strategy in China, and society and enterprises should not be pessimistic; the development of new energy vehicles is an unprecedented new business. It will not be smooth sailing, and no matter how difficult it is, we must overcome it." Cheng Zhenbiao said.
In Lin Shi ’s view, as one of the seven strategic emerging industries that the country will focus on during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, the subsidy distribution has reached the level of 100 billion yuan. The purpose of block chain is to truly master the core technology and seize the commanding heights of new energy vehicles and intelligent connected cars.
Lin Shi also said that the automobile industry has a crown effect, and automobile consumption accounts for about 30% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, which is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and the government will not ignore it. "For the sake of national energy security, and for Chinese cars to grow from strength to strength, China must develop clean and renewable energy and new energy vehicles. We must have full confidence in this."
It is worth mentioning that according to the previous "2017 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas Air Pollution Prevention Work Plan", all new taxis in Beijing should be replaced by electric vehicles in the future. In addition, according to data from the Shenzhen Transportation Bureau, some southern cities are also actively carrying out taxi electrification. This year, the proportion of pure electric taxis in Shenzhen has reached 99.06%. The industry generally believes that the electrification of public vehicles such as taxis is crucial to boosting sales of new energy vehicles. The taxi market may become the next "cake" for new energy vehicle companies to compete for food.
"No matter who is delivered to, the experience of new energy vehicles is the most important. Even if they are sold to taxi companies, if consumers have a good experience with new energy taxis, they will promote their willingness to buy new energy vehicles." Yang Dayong believes that in the long run, China's electric vehicle market will continue to maintain a high level of growth, and the outbreak period is expected to be between 2023 and 2025.
A trillion-dollar market for shared travel is yet to be tapped
Auto giants start "siege battle"
Right now, domestic automakers' entry into the shared travel market seems to be a trend. FAW Group ’s “Qiao Miao Travel”, Great Wall Motor ’s “Europe Travel”, SAIC Group ’s “Hangdao Travel”, GAC Group ’s “Ruqi Travel”, Jianghuai Automobile ’s “Joy Car”, Dongfeng Group ’s “ Dongfeng Travel ", a" T3 Travel "jointly established by Changan, FAW and Dongfeng. Car companies lined up in the luxury lineup to enter the shared mobility field. While triggering a major reshuffle in the industry, it has also made shared mobility services the third largest market in the automotive industry after manufacturing and after-sales service.
People can't help asking, from a market perspective, the sharing model that relies on online systems to control and deploy is an Internet company's entrepreneurial project. Nowadays, automobile OEMs are setting up one after another. Is the market for shared cars really that big?
In this regard, Peng Bo, a global managing partner of McKinsey, gave an extremely tempting answer: the current total travel market is about 3.6 trillion US dollars. By 2030, different business models will form different value chains, driving the total size of the travel market to $ 7 trillion. As one of the "new four modernizations", sharing has not only social (shared) and green (energy-saving) values, but also broad economic prospects. In short, this will be a trillion blue ocean.
In addition to the huge market potential, the deeper reason for incoming shared travel lies in its own transformation. Changhua Automobile President Zhu Huarong highlighted the travel layout in an interview during the 2019 Guangzhou Auto Show. He said: "Car companies all over the world are making trips, and each manufacturer may have a different understanding. Changan proposed a transformation to a smart travel technology company two years ago. There is a message in it, that is, 'Travel is An industry '. If automotive companies want to extend into this field, we think there is an opportunity. "
Public information shows that there are currently 250 million people in China who have a license without a car, and an average of 30 million new license holders are added each year. Compared with 80% of the number of people and cars in the United States, the Chinese market is even less than 20%. This background determines the living space of the shared model.
In fact, as early as 2015, Cai Che, then the global president of Mercedes-Benz, had proposed that the "digital transformation" of the automotive industry had been fully launched, and Mercedes-Benz was transforming from a car manufacturer to an Internet travel service provider. Since then, multinational car companies such as Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, and Toyota, and domestic traditional car companies such as SAIC, Changan, BAIC, and Geely have successively proposed to transform from traditional car manufacturing companies to mobile travel service providers. After years of accumulation and layout, the assumptions of these car companies have almost become reality. In addition, multinational car companies such as Hyundai and Toyota have chosen to cooperate with global travel giants Uber, Lyft and Grab.
"Securities Daily" reporter noted that there are some characteristics of shared cars that are different from other Internet product operations, that is, heavy assets, heavy operations, difficult initial start-up, and each city's situation is different. Because of this, unlike the monopoly market of the bike-sharing giants, there are no huge companies in the car-sharing field for the time being. The sequential layout from city to city, and the customs, consumption levels, and traffic conditions of different cities determine the differentiated operating strategies of each enterprise.
However, with the market share of Didi, where are the advantages and opportunities of car-sharing companies in shared mobility? In the face of the influx of dozens of car companies in the field of shared mobility, how can they be used in many shared mobility brands? To stand out from the crowd has become a real issue for travel brands.
In response, someone from the shared car manufacturer explained to the reporter of the Securities Daily the importance of the car company's positioning for itself. The person believes that in the customization of shared vehicles, car companies have inherent advantages and have taken this step. For example, Dongfeng plans to launch precise customized products to meet the needs of shared travel. Liu Jinliang, chairman of Geely Cao Cao Travel, also said that Geely will build a professional online car (charging and replacing model), further develop the attributes of vehicle operation, and quickly seize the travel market.
In addition, strong locality is also the advantage of car companies to arrange online car rental. As a car company that has developed in local provinces and cities for many years and has made many contributions to the local economy and employment, the government will most likely facilitate the matching of resources and policy rules in order to test new waters. In addition to the government's support, the dealer network of car companies in various places can also help car companies to do a good job of publicity and services, help car companies to cultivate the market in a short period of time, and then expand outward when the local business matures.
So far, hundreds of companies have entered the market, and at the same time, they have deeply cultivated the field of shared cars in combination with their own advantages, and created different business models based on the needs of different vehicle scenarios. A car sharing practitioner told a reporter of the Securities Daily, "Although this model is time-consuming and laborious, it is like a protracted battle, but the advantage is that each city can replicate the successful experience. Forcing a withdrawal from the market will not lead to a panic, which will avoid the risk of a systemic crash. "
The above-mentioned people also believe that the competition of shared cars is more like a game of Go. It is necessary to consider both the success and failure of local battles and the overall consideration. Building a competitive moat is not the same as simply launching vehicles, expanding subsidies, and marketing on a larger scale. It is also about innovation in business models.
It is foreseeable that "doing what others don't" will face more difficult problems, but someone in this industry will always have to go one step further. The practitioner told the Securities Daily reporter that "user experience and technological innovation are irreversible. Your experience is really better than others, and users must choose you. The replacement of shared bicycles for municipal bicycles has confirmed this."
Talking about capital, some people in the industry pointed out that compared with the rapid expansion and rapid collapse of third-party time-sharing, the shared travel brands endorsed by traditional car companies have generally developed cautiously and orderly, but must not simply pass the urgent Financing, fast "burning money" to achieve the replication of local patterns. In its view, the focus of the time-sharing leasing company is on operations. If the company cannot pass through the operating model, then "the faster the financing, the more vehicles are put on, and the sooner they die."
The mixed reform of state-owned car companies opened the curtain
Traditional automobile manufacturing industry is converging
At the end of the year and at the end of the year, the mixed ownership reform of Changan Automobile and Chery Automobile (hereinafter referred to as "hybrid reform") finally came to an end. During this period, there were both twists and turns and bitterness and sweetness, which have always been the focus of much attention in the industry.
On the evening of December 3, Changan Automobile announced that Changan New Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to introduce Nanjing Runke, Changxin Fund, Liangjiang Fund, and Southern Industrial Fund as strategic investors. Four shareholders intend to increase their capital by cash10. 100 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, 740 million yuan, and 100 million yuan. After the completion of the capital increase and share expansion, Changan Automobile ’s shareholding in Changan New Energy has been reduced from 100% to 48.95%, thereby losing absolute control, and Changan New Energy Technology will also change from a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company to an associate. .
Only one day later, on the morning of December 4, the Yangtze River Property Exchange issued a transaction announcement of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. and Chery Holdings Group Co., Ltd. to increase its capital and share. The announcement shows that Qingdao Wudaokou New Energy Automobile Industry Fund Enterprise (Limited Partnership) (referred to as "Qingdao Wudaokou") invested 7.586 billion yuan in Chery Holdings with a shareholding ratio of 30.99%; invested 6.863 billion yuan in Chery shares with a shareholding ratio of 18.52 %, The cumulative investment of the above two items reached 14.45 billion yuan. After the completion of the capital increase and share expansion transactions, Qingdao Wudaokou will hold 51% of Chery Holdings and Chery Automobile, becoming new shareholders of Chery Holdings and Chery Automobile.
The two mixed reform projects of the two auto companies are quite attractive, with two different mixed reform plans, different ownership of major shareholders, and listing on two different equity exchanges. Behind the integration action, there are obvious similarities: Chang'an and Chery both chose to increase capital and expand shares instead of equity transfer; they both went through a "withdrawal"; they both re-listed after the "optimization" of the plan, and both Landed successively within 24 hours.
The two car companies that have the courage to step out of the mixed reform also have a common feature-"lack of money." According to the reporter of Securities Daily, Changan Automobile has been seeking to introduce strategic partners due to the huge pressure of R & D investment since it launched the new energy "Shangri-La Plan" in October 2017. According to Changan Automobile's announcement, as of October 31 this year, Changan New Energy's total assets were 2.683 billion yuan, total liabilities were 2.25 billion yuan, and net profit loss was 599 million yuan. Chery has long admitted that the fundraising from the restructuring will be used for "debt repayment, as well as the development and daily operations of existing and new businesses."
In the first public listing of capital increase, Changan Automobile announced that it will introduce no less than 3 strategic investors, subscribe for new registered capital of not less than 103 million yuan, and increase the proportion of equity in the capital to not less than 51%. After the failure of the first capital increase, the most important plan optimization action made by Changan Automobile was to lower the threshold and relax the restrictions on the raised capital and corresponding shareholding requirements in the original capital increase plan.
Changhua Automobile President Zhu Huarong said in an interview with the Securities Daily that Changan Automobile is a listed company. We need to integrate social resources and integrate global resources to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, it must not make investors feel like a huge problem.
Chery's mixed reform process is more tortuous. From the beginning of Chery ’s official “nonsense” denial, to the implementation of the capital increase and share expansion plan; from the rumored 7 intentional investors to the “passing shot” after 4 extensions; from the restart in September this year to the Qingdao Wudaokou, which was established less than 4 months ago, successfully won. It can be said that the complicated mixed reform requirements have made Chery attract the attention of public opinion.
According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, Chery's mixed restructuring project requires investors to buy both Chery shares (that is, Chery Automobile) and the parent company Chery Holdings (that is, Chery Group), which imposes an imposing threshold on investors' funds. A lot, which is equivalent to requiring investors to hold shares of two companies at the same time, indirectly holding the latter through the former, and accumulating to become major shareholders. In addition, Chery also asked the former major shareholder Wuhu SASAC to consider the motivation of investors and future operators carefully, and to take into account a series of issues such as labor, personnel, and distribution after the mixed reform.
"The success of Chery's capital increase and expansion project is a milestone for Chery to build a world-class brand." Chery Holdings and Chairman of Chery Automobile Yin Tongyue said that in the face of a new round of technological revolution and increasingly fierce industry competition, if you do not advance, you will retreat. "Slow forward is also backward." Therefore, Chery must introduce strategic capital, activate the institutional mechanism, and seize a new track for the next round of competition.
In fact, before Changan and Chery mixed reform, domestic state-owned automobile groups including BAIC, Dongfeng, and FAW have also successively tested water mixed reform. In September 2018, BAIC New Energy was successfully backdoored through a major asset reorganization, and BAIC Blue Valley became the "first share of new energy vehicles" in the domestic A-share market.
The industry generally believes that in recent years, more and more Chinese car companies have entered the global market and seized the high ground for industrial transformation, but the situation they face is more complicated and the market challenges are more difficult. As a typical capital and technology-intensive industry, the layout of the automotive industry requires a lot of financial support. The above two car companies can obtain a considerable cash flow through capital increase and share expansion, which is conducive to alleviating the lack of funds. At the same time, the introduction of private capital to play the role of "strategic investor" is also conducive to the establishment of a more effective modern corporate governance structure, better use of the market role, promotion of deep-seated changes in corporate mechanisms and governance structures, and the maintenance and appreciation of state-owned assets.
Traditional head car companies are stronger
Marginalized brands face market retreat
According to the data released by the China Automobile Association before, in the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles totaled 23.038 million and 23.11 million, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and 9.1%. At the same time, according to the prediction of the China Automobile Association, the decline in the auto market will continue in the short term. It may still be negative or basically flat until 2021, and the Chinese auto market will resume its growth around 2022, and it may be from 2023 to 2025. There is an average annual increase of about 4%. In the future, the differentiation of auto companies will be further intensified. Before the non-incremental consumption enters the market and the stock market fights off, the stronger the auto companies, the more marginal companies will be out, or it will become the next stage of development.
In the context of the industry's slump, like the ranking test, the gap between good and poor students will be significantly enlarged. "Securities Daily" reporter found statistics on the year-on-year sales changes of auto companies in the first 11 months of this year and found that in the context of the general decline in car market sales, it is difficult for all auto companies to survive, even Changan Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling, etc. Car manufacturers have had to face the dilemma of a sharp decline in sales this year. Among the first echelon led by FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, and Geely, only FAW-Volkswagen achieved 2.2% positive sales growth year-on-year, and the remaining three companies experienced negative growth of 6.72%, 17.94%, and 13%, respectively.
Among the lower ranking car companies, Haima Motor fell 58.95% year-on-year, and Shenlong Motor's sales in the first 10 months also fell 54%. Some analysts said that on the one hand, large-scale auto companies or large groups with leading performance have mastered most of the new production capacity; on the other hand, auto companies that have fallen behind can no longer make breakthroughs through new construction and expansion. It is foreseen that the gap between strength and weakness in the field of fuel vehicles will further expand in the future.
It is worth mentioning that Great Wall Motor, the independent brand, appeared at the top of the list with a year-on-year increase of 3.81%. In response, Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, said in an interview with Securities Daily that the current status quo reflects the normal cyclical characteristics of the automotive industry. "Most of the (automotive companies') sales and profits have fallen a lot, not just Chinese car brands, but also foreign and high-end brands. Without real capabilities, this tragedy can't get through this low or crisis time in the auto market."
Wei Jianjun further stated, "The development speed of China's auto industry was too crazy before, but now it is more rational. Enterprises need to understand the market, establish mechanisms, and control costs more deeply. I think there will be opportunities in the future crisis. Clear the gap between yourself and foreign companies. "
The downward trend of traditional cars is also reflected in the continued marginalization of marginalized car companies. At present, there are nearly a hundred automobile manufacturers in China, but the 130-year history of automobile development tells us that the automobile market cake under mature market competition obviously cannot sustain so many automobile companies. Since the official announcement of Changan Suzuki's withdrawal from the Chinese auto market in 2018, more and more deteriorating car companies have been labeled by the industry with an unsustainable label.
According to incomplete statistics from the reporter of the Securities Daily, the cumulative sales volume of 17 companies in the first 10 months of this year fell by more than 50% year-on-year. Among them, Tianjin FAW's continuous loss of 76.7% year-on-year has become the norm; Changhe Automobile's sales fell 42.7% year-on-year due to the product sequence not meeting market demand; Haima Automobile, which has not received much actual support since entering the FAW Group, welcomed the veteran Jing Zhu's return, but the 92.4% decline indicates that the future is still uncertain ... In addition, in the automobile market, there are still trembling in the winter, and Zhidou Electric, which is completely parasitic of subsidy policies and finally enters the bankruptcy and liquidation process, has already shrunk its own brand business. Cars, Shenlong Motors shut down factories one after another.
Jiang Yuan believes that for the current downturn in the automotive market, it is necessary to take appropriate measures and take a combination of measures. First, the improvement of automotive environmental standards should be gradual, with a sufficient transition period to stabilize environmental protection expectations; second, to stabilize and improve consumer consumption expectations; third, the long-term stable growth of the automotive market depends on promoting structural reforms on the supply side of the automobile , Speed up technological innovation, improve China's auto industry's independent development capabilities, and focus on solving the decline in the market share of China's own brand cars and market demand after the development of new products. (Reporter Gong Mengze)
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