As the Lunar New Year approaches, accidents are frequently heard in coal-producing areas.
Affected by the "12 · 17" major coal and gas outburst accident at Guanglong Coal Mine in Anlong County, Guizhou Province, on December 18th, Guizhou urgently requested that coal mines below 300,000 tons be shut down immediately, including coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia, etc. Centralized rectification of production safety in the industry is also actively underway.
Guizhou shuts down small coal mines
It is understood that since the beginning of this year, eight coal mine accidents have occurred in Guizhou. Against this background, the Guizhou Provincial Government issued an emergency notice to deeply learn from the "12 · 17" major coal and gas outburst accident in Guanglong Coal Mine, Anlong County, and further strengthen the safety of coal production. Coal mines below 300,000 tons / year immediately stopped production. .
"Guizhou is one of the main producing areas of anthracite in China. According to statistics, the suspension of coal mines below 300,000 tons in Guizhou will involve more than 28 million tons of suspended production capacity, including anthracite, coking coal and thermal coal. Anthracite and coking coal account for Larger. "Zhuo Chuang analyst Li Huamin said in an interview with Securities Times e company reporters that the price of the entire anthracite market this year is weak. Although the price has not fluctuated sharply recently, due to weak demand and loose supply, prices are still on a downward trend.
"In the short term, the complete shutdown of small and medium-sized coal mines in Guizhou will undoubtedly cause the local coal supply to tighten and the price of some coal types to rise." Li Huamin said that the production capacity of Guizhou coal mines mainly supplies local and Yunnan, Fujian and other places. Coal in the south rarely goes north and has little effect on national prices.
In fact, the shutdown of coal production capacity below 300,000 tons is also planned for Guizhou.
In May this year, in order to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and promote the optimization and transformation and upgrading of the coal industry structure, the Guizhou Provincial Government formulated the Guizhou Province's Orderly Exit Plan for Coal Mine Below 300,000 Tons / Year in accordance with relevant requirements.
"Guizhou has formed an orderly exit plan for production capacity below 300,000 tons in the first half of this year, and it has been implementing an orderly exit since this year. This incident just stopped the implementation of the previously planned phased out production capacity immediately. In the short term, it will affect the local price formation in Guizhou. Impact, but the long-term impact is not obvious. "Li Huamin said.
Resurgence of security inspections in production areas
"Affected by the recent coal mine accidents, coal mines in producing areas are now cautiously producing, and some coal mines may be closed for production or vacation time." Talking about the impact of the recent coal mine accident on the market, Zhuo Chuang analyst Jing Wenjuan said that many of the upcoming annual tasks Mine has begun to stop production one after another, and the supply of origin has contracted.
The resurgence of security inspection and rectification in the production area has caused a reduction in production due to coal mines with low production enthusiasm near the end of the year.
According to the news of Taiyuan Coal Trading Center, in order to resolutely prevent and curb the occurrence of heavy production safety accidents, parts of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia have successively carried out centralized rectification of safety production in key industries such as coal mines.
At the same time, in accordance with the unified arrangement of the “National Work Safety Consolidation Work Plan” of the State Council ’s Security Committee, the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety recently issued a notice requesting a three-month coal mine safety rectification around the country focusing on 10 key areas.
In order to urge and promote the centralized control of coal mine safety in key areas and key enterprises, the State Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau has sent 6 supervision working groups led by leaders and leaders to lead the team to Jinzhong City, Shuozhou City, and Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, respectively. City, Bijie City, Qujing City, Yunnan Province, Qitaihe City, Heilongjiang Province, Loudi City, Hunan Province, Weinan City, Shaanxi Province and 3 companies including Longmei Group, Shaanxi Coal Chemical Group, Sichuan Coal Group and Furong Company Supervision and inspection.
The supervision and inspection is divided into 5 stages and lasts for 11 months, covering the three levels of local government and coal mine safety supervision department, coal mine enterprise and resident coal supervision agency. At present, six supervision and inspection teams have been stationed in various places, and members of the leadership team of the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety have held a local coal mine safety rectification deployment mobilization meeting to carry out safety inspections at the grassroots level and promote the orderly development of coal mine safety centralized rectification work. Ensure the safety and stability of coal mines at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year.
Rising coal prices or unsustainable
"On the one hand, due to the safety inspection and the end of the year, the coal mining site's enthusiasm has not been high. On the other hand, due to snow in the early stage of the production site, after the snow stopped, the downstream began to actively replenish the warehouse, spurring demand growth." Jing Wenjuan introduced that Yulin, Shaanxi recently The price of many coal mines in the region has increased by about 10 yuan to 20 yuan per ton. The mainstream 6000 kcal blended coal price in Yuyang District is about 415 yuan / ton, which is 15 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month.
With the advance of the Spring Festival, logistics will also be stopped early. According to the practice of previous years, general logistics is suspended for vacation 15-20 days in advance, which also means that normal delivery is only about one week in January next year. The golden cycle of this year's stocking is in December, which is less than 20 days from the Spring Festival stocking, which promotes coal. Prices rose slightly.
Although the current coal price has risen in the short term, analysts in the interview believe that the increased security inspection of coal mines in the production area near the end of the year will have a certain impact on coal supply. However, given the current situation of high inventory and low coal consumption in the downstream, there is insufficient demand to increase. In the short term, thermal coal prices will remain weak.
It is reported that as of December 17, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.74 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 875,000 tons, or a decrease of 13.23%. The cost of shipping thermal coal to the northern ports in Datong area was upside down by about 30 yuan / ton, which resulted in a lack of enthusiasm for shipping at the origin. Hong Kong's coal import volume remains low.
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