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Beijing-Shanghai route fare increases, high-speed rail price increase opens

来源: 证券时报 2019-12-20 10: 12: 15Source: Securities Times

Near the end of the year, the news that many airlines will once again raise the price of economy class tickets on the Beijing-Shanghai route from January 1 next year has blown up, including China Eastern Airlines and Air China. It is understood that, taking China Eastern Airlines and Air China as an example, the current full-price economy class ticket for the Beijing-Shanghai line of the two airline companies is 1,490 yuan, and after adjustment, it will rise to 1,630 yuan, an increase of about 10%.

It is not the first time for airlines to raise fares on the Beijing-Shanghai route. As the busiest route in China, the number of flights operated by the Beijing-Shanghai route and the number of passengers carried by it ranks first in the country. It is worth noting that recently, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has been launched for the first time, and around the Beijing-Shanghai line, the competition between the high-speed railway and civil aviation has not been interrupted.

Beijing-Shanghai route fare increases

In addition to China Eastern Airlines and Air China, Juneyao Airlines and other airlines are about to raise the price of economy class tickets on the Beijing-Shanghai route. In fact, this is the third price adjustment for the Beijing-Shanghai route in a year and a half. The first time was in June 2018. The full price of the economy class rose from 1,240 yuan to 1,360 yuan, and in December 2018 it rose to 1490 yuan.

Talking about the reasons and background of the latest price adjustment, the relevant person in charge of China Eastern told the Securities Times · e company reporter that this price adjustment is a routine adjustment and is also handled in strict accordance with relevant policies and procedures. Another airline company official said that the price adjustment is in line with the relevant policies of the Civil Aviation Administration. Some measures have been implemented since last year. This year is the second year.

The reporter learned that the policy mentioned by the airline personnel is the "Notice on Further Promoting Domestic Air Passenger Transport Prices in Civil Aviation" (hereinafter referred to as "Notice") and "Notice" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration of China in January 2018. Decided to expand the scope of routes that implement market-adjusted prices, including routes such as Beijing and Shanghai.

According to the "Notice", the number of routes that can be adjusted by each airline in each season is 15% of the total number of market-regulated routes operated in the previous season, and the cumulative discount for each route without discount in each season must not exceed 10%. . The above seasons are divided into summer and autumn seasons and winter and spring seasons.

Regarding the background of price adjustment, there is another detail worthy of attention. According to the civil aviation bureau's winter and spring season schedule, the weekly planned flight growth rate for the 2019/2020 winter and spring season is 5.5%, which is slower than the 6.7% growth rate of the same period last year. Slower than 1 percentage point, but there is also the possibility of further growth on the demand side, and many institutions have more expectations for the increase in average fares.

As mentioned above, the Beijing-Shanghai route is the most important route in China, and in terms of carriers, China Eastern Airlines and Air China have high-quality routes and time resources, and there are many business and commercial travelers and frequent travelers. Among them, China Eastern Airlines is the largest carrier on the Beijing-Shanghai route. Data show that China Eastern Airlines has a 53% market share on the Beijing-Shanghai route.

Airlines also attach great importance to the operation of Beijing-Shanghai routes. For example, after the opening of Beijing Daxing Airport, in order to retain a large proportion of business passengers departing from Capital Airport, China Eastern Airlines reduced its flight volume at Daxing Airport from 40% to 30. %. According to data previously disclosed by China Eastern Airlines, about 3.44 million passengers were carried on the Beijing-Shanghai route in 2018, with a profit of up to 1.25 billion yuan.

Anxin Securities commented on the layout of the Beijing-Shanghai route of China Eastern Airlines. China Eastern Airlines officially entered Beijing Daxing Airport and Shanghai Pudong Airport S1 satellite hall operation. The original core Beijing-Shanghai route was still operated at the Capital Airport, and the company opened a Beijing-Shanghai dual hub. With the new operation pattern of the two cities and four games, the route quality is expected to continue to lead.

High-speed rail fare increase space opens

In addition to civilian flights, another large artery runs on the Beijing-Shanghai line, namely the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. Not long ago, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail started the meeting and set the record for the fastest meeting. Will the civil aviation price adjustment affect the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway that will soon land in the capital market, and will the competition between civil aviation and high-speed railway intensify?

The fare information shows that, except for a small number of trips, the one-way fare for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is 553 yuan, the first-class seat is 933 yuan, the business seat is 1748 yuan, and the shortest duration of the whole journey is 4 hours 18 According to the content of the prospectus of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, the passenger ticket income has reached 44% in the first three quarters of this year, which is the largest source of income of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail.

Benefiting from the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed line, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail also maintained a very strong profitability. The data show that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail had 2018 revenues of 31.2 billion yuan, profits of 10.2 billion yuan, and sent 200 million passengers across the board, with a load factor of 78.3%. In addition, from 2015 to 2018, the compound annual growth rates of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail revenue and net profit reached 10.9% and 15.9%, respectively.

Talking about the substitution effect of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and civil aviation, a brokerage analyst told reporters that historically, the high-speed rail has only replaced civil aviation to some extent during the period when the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail was just opened, but after that, both The substitution effect is not obvious; of course, he also mentioned that because the overall travel time of the two modes of travel is similar, for certain preference passengers, they will be more inclined to travel by high-speed rail.

Another interviewee told reporters that high-income groups may not be sensitive to changes in ticket prices, but from their personal experience, even if civil aviation does not raise prices, the proportion of passengers traveling to and from the Beijing-Shanghai line via the high-speed rail travels May still be higher than civil aviation.

In fact, for the replacement of civil aviation and high-speed rail, the two most important factors are the price and the length of the trip. High-speed rail is undoubtedly more advantageous in terms of price, but the air flight time of civil aviation is basically only about half of that of high-speed rail. The reporter noticed that the one-way flight time of Beijing-Shanghai civil flight planes is mostly about 2 hours and 15 minutes.

A noteworthy situation is that since April 10 last year, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed passenger train operation plan has been adjusted, especially the "Fuxing" EMU train expansion, and runs at a speed of 350 km / h, fast However, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail still maintains the original fare, which is undoubtedly attractive to many travelers.

The above analysts believe that the increase in the price of Beijing-Shanghai routes by civil aviation has opened the ceiling of airline revenue, but at the same time it should be noted that this also provides space for the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail fare increase.

The reporter noticed that there is a precedent for the fluctuation of train fares. In 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to release the high-speed rail fares. It was changed by China Railway Corporation (now restructured into the National Railway Group) to set prices on its own, and gave the General Railways the basis. Factors such as market competition and passenger flow distribution have the right to implement certain discounted fares.

When talking about the prospects of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, Tianfeng Securities pointed out that in the context of strong demand, capacity is the core issue of the current growth of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line. It can be effective by improving models and the future opening of the Shanghe-Hangzhou high-speed rail. Increase the company's performance flexibility. In response to the issue of high-speed rail fares, Tianfeng Securities believes that there is no administrative hindrance to the adjustment of fares.

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